April 22, 2009 (The Palestine Telegraph)
BAGHDAD - The current U.S.-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) dictates that U.S. troops must vacate Iraq by December 31, 2011, although it is understood that there may be as many as 70,000 troops left behind as "advisers and trainers;" and a referendum is expected in Iraq in mid-2009 that may require U.S. troops to leave 18 months earlier. Nevertheless, however the U.S. occupation ends, it is expected that this is when the next battle for control of Iraq will begin.
Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army (Jaish al Mahdi) was formed in Iraq in June 2003, but came to prominence the following year, after a major military conflict with U.S. troops in the Battle of Najaf.
The Sunni paramilitary force has maintained its influence in Iraq, and has been a factor in ameliorating the level of violence through al-Sadr's cease-fire declarations.
Last November, he demanded that all U.S. troops leave Iraq unconditionally, or he would lift the cease-fire and "support the resistance against the occupier." However, last summer al-Sadr announced plans to expand the army into a social, political, and religious organization, while still maintaining the militia.
He has left Iraq to study in Iran, raising questions about his continued authority, and whether Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is seeking to bring his own influence to the new Iraq. Who has the power now, and who will have it later, is debatable.
Abu Raed, 44, is a former commander in the Mahdi Army, in the al-Ameen district in east Baghdad. He recently left the militia and is now a member of the Sadrist Independent Liberals political bloc.
He believes the U.S. made its first mistake in Iraq when it invaded and occupied a country it didn't understand.
"Their worst failure was when they tried to divide Iraq into three states: northern, southern and middle, in order to weaken and control Iraq," he says, adding that Bush wasn't expecting the level of resistance that came from the various militias that rose up in Iraq, following the invasion.
"We have not benefited from the occupation - we only got killing, displacement, and robbing Iraqi money and oil," he says. "I believe life will improve greatly with the exit of the American occupation."
He also believes the Mahdi Army is the solution for improving Iraqi lives: "The Iraqi people are currently waiting for relief, and we find the Al-Sadrist line is the salvation and sanctuary to the Iraqi people because it is a line of Arabic people. Many of [al-Sadr's] followers have been thrown into prison, but we won in the last election in many Iraqi provinces, and we have the ability to return to the political arena in the next elections."
28-year-old Malik al-Mohammadawi is a former Mahdi Army fighter who now works in a milk factory in east Baghdad, and is married with children, but still holds the beliefs of a Sadrist follower.
"When the Americans leave, life will become normal, business will return, and Iraq will become more secure than ever before, because the cause of evil and chaos is the U.S. occupation, which wanted to make Iraq a client state. The Americans tried in various ways to eliminate the Mahdi Army, but they failed in their efforts, despite the support of police forces and the Iraqi army. To the U.S. forces, we were still strong."
But, he says, when al-Sadr called for a cease-fire and asked his militia to stop all military operations against U.S. troops, it opened the door wide for the U.S. forces to hunt down the Sadrists, but says they did what they could to ensure that not all of them would be caught, and he still believes in al-Sadr's influence over the Iraqi people.
"I have a great belief that al-Sadr can keep the unity of Iraq and its people, and he can stop the calls for dividing Iraq, and stop the spirit of sectarian division."
But Dr. Malik al-Noimee, a specialist in the study of the militias in Iraq, disagrees about al-Sadr's power in the communities. He believes that with al-Sadr's decision to expand the Mahdi Army from a militia into an organization that also has social, religious and political sects, he is trying to imitate Hassan Nasrallah, commander of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"The power of the Mahdi Army in the community is close to zero," he says. "There is no effect and a lot of militia members in the past are now wearing uniforms and they were forbidden to, before. I am afraid that leaving the Mahdi Army without observing and without control measures by the government will not lead to canceling this phenomenon, and we must exploit this situation. The Iraqi government has to establish new values to replace the sense and ideas belonging to the militia in the Iraqi community, because now militias are closer to death than life."
He also doubts al-Sadr's influence at election polls. "The election results gave a clear size of the popularity of Moqtada al-Sadr in Iraq, although there is a part of those who elected [The Independent Liberals] who are not necessarily in favor of Moqtada al-Sadr; in their eyes, they made the situation worse and there were a lot of missed opportunities for the people of the southern region, in the field of construction and progress."
A U.S. study in 2007 estimated the Mahdi Army force was about 60,000 strong. But al-Noimee believes if al-Sadr called his militia to action today, only about a quarter of that number would show up.
"If Moqtada al-Sadr ordered them to fight, not more than 15,000 fighters would show on the scene." He also notes that the leaders of the Mahdi Army are driven much more by money than by religious ideology, and that an improvement in Iraq's economy could actually hurt the Mahdi Army's popularity and influence.
"The first factor is the strength of the central government, and the prestige of the government in a citizen militia, and then across the country in general; the second is the economic factor: if the government immediately improves the economy of the individual and the national economy, then Moqtada al-Sadr will never get people who listen to him from the communities that are considered the source of militias, such as the poor communities." He claims that many of the Mahdi Army leaders have links to Iran, and that it is having a source of money that really keeps them invested in the cause. "[There are] a very few who are driven by religious passion."
With al-Sadr now living in Iran, there are questions as to his continued influence - but also to Ahmadinejad's increasing persuasion - in Iraq, as Ahmadinejad tries to widen his power across the region.
Abu Raed thinks this is a temporary situation, and one that will be alleviated once the U.S. troops leave: "Iran has very clear power on the Iraqi arena by virtue of its relationship with some Islamic parties, which found Iran to be a safe haven, when they were being pursued by Saddam Hussein. Therefore, those parties have roots and links with Iran one way or another.
I think that after the departure of U.S. troops, Iran would be a stronger influence on the Iraqi arena, by virtue of being a neighbor, an Islamic state, and as a Shiite sectarian. But, Iraq remains an independent, free country.
"There is a difference between Ahmadinejad, who is the leader of a political and military fields and al-Sadr, the religious and spiritual leader for most of the Shiites in the region. I do not think there will be conflict between them."
Al-Mohammedawi agrees: "I imagine that Iran has a major intervention in Iraq by virtue of their many parties on the Iraqi arena, as well as their relationship to those who are of Iranian origin in Iraq, and who are not ashamed, and they do not hide their links to Iran," he says. "But after the departure of the Americans, I believe that the Iranian influence will be less than ever before, because Iran now interferes because of their fearing that U.S. troops should stay close to its borders.
If the U.S. troops are gone, Iran will pull its hands out of Iraq, and its relations will remain good, based on good-neighborliness."
But independent Iraqi Parliament member Dr. Haider Al-Sewedi is not so sure.
"The Iranian influence is very significant," he says. "There is a hidden conflict between al-Sadr and Ahmadinejad, because Ahmadinejad is trying to strengthen Iran's influence in the region, but al-Sadr doesn't accept any external interference in the Iraqi affairs, even if it is a Shiite state like Iran. Al-Sadr sought asylum in Iran in terms of security, only to save his life from the U.S. military. Now al-Sadr has little effect in the Iraqi arena."
With so many disparate opinions about who holds the power now in Iraq, only time will tell who will step forward as a leader after the pullout of U.S. troops in 2011 - or whether anyone will have enough power to step forward at all.
